AUSTIN (KXAN) — As the first named storm of the season develops in the Eastern Pacific (Agatha), many along the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean anticipate the arrival of Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1.
We looked back at the origins of tropical storms and hurricanes during the first month of Atlantic hurricane season over the last 50 years.
This map shows where storms developed in June since 1971:
Most of the development has been over coastal Central America, in the Gulf of Mexico or east of Florida. Notice the cluster of storms that have developed right along the south Texas coast.
Unlike what is typical later in the hurricane season, there’s been no development off the coast of Africa in the last 50 years that has given way to a tropical storm or hurricane in the month of June.
There’s also a somewhat rare occurrence that’s happened with two “C” named storms over the last 50 years. Both Cosme and Cristobal developed in the Eastern Pacific and then crossed over Central America and ended up in the Gulf of Mexico (Cristobal) or almost to southern Texas (Cosme).
That could happen again soon. What’s now Hurricane Agatha in the Eastern Pacific is forecast to become a major hurricane before sliding into southern Mexico and then weakening by Tuesday.
What’s interesting about Agatha’s path is that some of the moisture or remnants from Agatha may end up developing something in the Gulf of Mexico.
Confidence is low, but the National Hurricane Center has the southern Gulf as an area of potential development with now a 30% chance that a tropical system could generate from what’s left of Agatha within the next 5 days.
If it did, it would get renamed from the Atlantic names list. The first name on that list is Alex.
Even if there is development, we’re not yet seeing any signs that we’ll be able to get some of that much needed moisture in the form of rain our way.
Stay with the First Warning Weather team as we watch for tropical development through Atlantic Hurricane season.