AUSTIN (KXAN) – Colorado State University released its annual updated hurricane season forecast on Thursday morning. Unfortunately, the new outlook increases the number of expected hurricanes for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, and bumps up the likelihood that hurricanes will approach our state.

The new forecast now calls for 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes and five major, category three or higher storms. This is an increased jump in every category compared to the university’s previous forecast back in April.

Atmospheric conditions/trends shaping their forecast

  • Above-average sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
  • Ongoing La Niña that is expected to continue through the summer. La Niña is strongly correlated with less wind shear which typically encourages hurricane development. You can learn more HERE.

Previous April forecast

New updated June forecast

Texas landfalling risk also increased in new update

The forecast also shows an increasing likelihood of a hurricane reaching within 50 miles of the Texas coast. Colorado State University now gives Texas a 59% chance of a hurricane coming very close to or making landfall in our state this year. This is a sizable jump from its 54% prediction in its April forecast.

Even more alarming is our increased chances for a major, category three or above, hurricane to get dangerously to the Texas coastline. Those chances are now 28%, an increase of 3% from its April forecast.

Another active Atlantic hurricane season would be our seventh busier-than-normal season in a row.

Last year was the third-busiest season on record in the Atlantic with 21 named storms and seven hurricanes, four of them major.

Stay with KXAN and the First Warning Weather team as we keep you informed and prepared throughout the 2022 hurricane season.