Two simultaneous tropical cyclones possible in the Gulf next week

Weather Blog

Tropical Depression #13 and another disturbance that has yet to develop may both intensify into tropical storms or hurricanes and move into the Gulf of Mexico early next week.

We first warned you last week that hurricane season was about to heat up, and we are now watching it happen as the environment over the tropical Atlantic becomes more favorable to nurture storms.

Tropical Depression #13 in the open ocean is forecast to trek just north of Puerto Rico, Haiti and Cuba, potentially impacting Florida then moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. If the storm shifts farther south, interaction with mountainous land masses could weaken the storm.

It should be noted that while the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (above) maintains TD #13 as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds, there is an unusually high amount of uncertainty in regards to its future intensity.

Some global models ingest drier air into the system and maintain a weaker storm, while two high-resolution hurricane forecast models develop it into a major category 4 hurricane.

HWRF hurricane forecast model for Monday evening, depicting a category 4 hurricane approaching the Florida coast.
Note: This is just one forecast model run, and the exact outcome is likely to change
HMON hurricane forecast model for Monday evening, also depicting a category 4 hurricane but farther south on the Florida coast.
Note: This is just one forecast model run, and the exact outcome is likely to change

Of more immediate concern to Texas, Invest 97L is a yet-to-develop tropical disturbance that appears to be gaining some organization today. It is located closer to the Gulf of Mexico and Texas.

Intensity models currently suggest this system may stay weaker than the future of TD #13, only reaching tropical depression or tropical storm strength as it moves into the western Gulf of Mexico early next week.

Intensity forecasts with systems that have yet to develop are also highly uncertain, so we cannot rule out that this system may reach hurricane strength as well.

Regardless of intensity, Invest 97L has the potential to bring tropical moisture and rain to the Texas coast during the middle of next week. The potential also exists for a more significant tropical cyclone landfall anywhere from South Padre Island to Louisiana.

Stay tuned for daily updates on both of these tropical systems, especially if you have travel plans to the coast. Residents do not need to cancel travel plans yet due to high uncertainty, but both of these systems do bear watching.

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