Tropical disturbance evolving in the Gulf of Mexico

Weather Blog

AUSTIN (KXAN) — We are closely monitoring a low pressure system in the southern Gulf just three days into the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season.

This disorganized area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche may develop into Tropical Depression #2 (if winds exceed 35 mph) or Tropical Storm Barry (if winds exceed 39 mph) over the next 48 hours as it lugs slowly northwestward through warm ocean waters.

While environmental conditions are fairly conducive for development, the system still lacks a closed center of circulation and thunderstorms are far offset from the middle of the storm.

Latest analysis shows that ocean surface temperatures are about 1ºF warmer than average in this area, close to 84ºF.

Depending on this track of this area of low pressure, it will likely send deep tropical moisture our way midweek. If the center of the system treks south of us into northern Mexico as is expected, this would put us on the wet side of the storm. If it were to track east of us, we would be on the drier side.

Here’s the latest discussion Monday morning from the National Hurricane Center:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity over the Bay of Campeche. This system is expected to move slowly northwestward toward the northeastern coast of Mexico, and could become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland in a day or two. 
Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. 
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. 
Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

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