The recent quiet period in Atlantic hurricane season may be coming to an end next week.
We are monitoring a weak disturbance over the Caribbean, slowly drifting northwestward, for the potential of tropical cyclogenesis next week.
The Atlantic hurricane season has been quiet in recent weeks largely due to cooler than average water temperatures in the main development region, and higher than average vertical wind shear (winds of varying direction and speeds at different levels of the atmosphere which tend to rip storms apart).
One of our reliable computer models is now developing this area of low pressure (for the second day in a row) into a potential tropical storm or hurricane early / mid next week.
This computer model keeps the potential storm on a northwestward track, not entering the core of the Gulf of Mexico, nor coming near Texas.
Boosting confidence in the possibility that this disturbance may develop, just today the Climate Prediction Center’s tropical hazards outlook began highlighting the eastern Gulf of Mexico as a “moderate risk” for tropical development between the week one and two outlooks.
It should be noted that the GFS model, another respectable long-range computer forecast, has not been developing a closed low pressure system during this time period, and is not anticipating tropical cyclogenesis.
Stay with the First Warning Weather team for updates as we approach the traditional peak of hurricane season.