AUSTIN (KXAN) – Although we dodged a bullet avoiding severe storms Monday, a higher risk of strong storms exists today.
The three ingredients needed for storm development all are present today: moisture, instability & lift. The question remains… will there be enough lift to break the cap?
IN-DEPTH: a “cap” is a warm layer of air in the atmosphere that prevents storm development. Think of it as a “lid” that suppresses storms from growing upwards needed to support large hail.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible mid-morning through early afternoon, but this early round won’t carry much of a severe risk. Our greatest risk for severe storms will begin during the late afternoon (after 3 p.m.) and continue through the evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has most of Central Texas in a slight risk (yellow) for severe weather on Tuesday which is a level 2 out of 5. However, there is an enhanced risk (orange) or 3 out of 5 risk for more scattered severe storms in Burnet, Williamson, Lampasas and Milam County.
Our concerns on Tuesday are higher, because should any storms form, they could quickly become severe with large hail the main concern, followed by a lower wind damage and tornado threat. Still, there will be some limiting factors that may prevent formation and we’ll have to continue to monitor.
Stay with the First Warning Weather Team as we continue to adjust and refine our forecast for these two days of potential storms.