AUSTIN (KXAN) — We may be one month away from the beginning of astronomical summer, which begins June 21, but meteorological summer is less than two weeks away.

The dates of meteorological seasons, unlike astronomical ones, don’t fluctuate each year and instead include whole-months in groups of three. This makes it easier to compare the same season with previous years, since they all start and end at the same time.

Meteorological summer runs June 1 through August 31 every year, which means we’re knocking on the door of the hottest season of the year.

The Climate Prediction Center just released their summer forecast for June-August.

They’re expecting most of the west, south and east to be warmer than normal, and the odds point to a hotter than normal Central Texas summer.

Summer temperature forecast 2023 (CPC)
Summer temperature forecast 2023 (CPC)

Wetter weather is expected to be confined to most of the eastern third of the country with drier than normal weather around the Four-Corners Region and the Pacific Northwest.

Summer rainfall forecast 2023 (CPC)
Summer rainfall forecast 2023 (CPC)

What’s normal for Central Texas?

Summer in Central Texas is, of course, hot. June average highs are in the low 90s, but for July and August our highs are normally in the upper 90s.

Average highs in the summer for Austin
Average highs in the summer for Austin

The hottest temperatures typically come from late July through mid-August when our average high for those two weeks reaches 99º!

We can get thunderstorms and heavy rain in the summer, but it typically comes early summer and late, with the driest weather in the middle.

June is our third wettest month of the year with 3.68″ of rain, much of that coming the beginning of the month. July is our second driest month of the year with 1.96″ on average, but we get wetter again in August with 2.74″ in a typical year.

Average summer rain in Austin
Average summer rain in Austin

Add it all up and summer is our second driest season of the year (winter is driest) with a little more than 8 inches of rain a year.

When do triple digit temperatures come?

2022 had the third highest number of triple digit days in a year with 68. 2011 had the most ever with 90!

In an average year we get 29 100º or hotter days a year, with most of those coming in the summer months (of course).

What about the first triple digit day of the year?

  • Average first 100º day: July 4
  • Earliest first 100º day: May 4, 1984
  • Latest first 100º day in Austin: October 2, 1938

First 100º days over the last five years:

  • 2022: May 21 (100º)
  • 2021: June 14 (100º)
  • 2020: June 9 (100º)
  • 2019: July 14 (100º)
  • 2018: June 2 (101º)

First Warning Weather triple digit forecast!

The First Warning Weather Team have compiled our predictions for triple digit days in 2023:

  • Sean Kelly: 33
  • David Yeomans: 34
  • Rich Segal: 35
  • Nick Bannin: 37
  • Kristen Currie: 42
  • Jim Spencer: 44

*Winner of 2022’s prediction: Sean Kelly*