AUSTIN (KXAN) — Storms and showers are likely each day this week bringing meaningful and significant rain to a drought-stricken Central Texas.

Deep tropical moisture, a low pressure system aloft and a disturbance to our east will all come together to fuel periods of heavy rainfall through the upcoming holiday weekend.

Rain chances

TUESDAY: A line of storms and showers continues to slowly trek east through the Hill Country this morning, already dropping 1″-3.0″ of rain over parts of San Saba, Mason and Llano County. More storms and showers are expected to develop through the afternoon, lasting through the at least the start of the evening commute.

The Austin-metro area is likely to get in on the action, with some high-resolution models bringing additional heavy downpours to the I-35 corridor by 4PM-6PM.

High-resolution model’s take on what future radar 4PM

MIDWEEK: Storms and showers are likely to return daily with slightly less coverage each afternoon. Rain chances start at 70% Tuesday, 60% on Wednesday, before plateauing at 40%-50% Thursday through Sunday.

Rainfall amounts

We are seeing better agreement on a widespread 1-3 inches of rain in our area over the course of the next 7 days. Remember, this doesn’t mean you will have all of that by Tuesday, but instead will receive it spaced out over the next week.

As is often the case, some neighborhoods will miss out on rainfall while some will get much higher rain totals where more persistent downpours and storms develop. It is nearly impossible to predict where these micro-scale rainfall maximums may occur, but they are likely in isolated locations and may cause localized flash flooding.

American model rain forecast (GFS)
American model rain forecast (GFS)
NWS’ 7-day rainfall prediction

Severe weather and flooding concerns

The Storm Prediction Center is not highlighting Central Texas for severe weather risks, but downburst winds can always be a problem with these moisture-loaded storms.

Localized flash flooding remains our primary concern for the week ahead. The Weather Prediction Center has INCREASED the risk of flash flooding for our area. A ‘slight’ 2 out of 4 flash flood threat exists for all of Central Texas on Tuesday as more widespread rainfall develops.

Tuesday’s flooding risk – 2 out of 4

Remember, never drive through a water-covered roadway — “Turn Around, Don’t Drown!”

Before the storm

As we advised before the last round of widespread rain, make sure you keep the following preparations in mind ahead of the potential for more heavy rain and flash flooding this week.

Preparing for heavy rain
Preparing for heavy rain

Stay with the First Warning Weather Team for updates, and download the First Warning Weather app for GPS-based lightning and rainfall alerts.