AUSTIN (KXAN) – An active weather pattern takes shape early this week with storms possible Monday, Tuesday and again Wednesday.

Timing:

TWO rounds of more widespread storms and heavy rain look likely:

  • ROUND 1: Monday evening through Tuesday morning
  • ROUND 2: Tuesday late afternoon through Wednesday early afternoon

Isolated showers and storms may develop outside of these rounds, but this appears to be when the majority of us get soaking rainfall.

Our rainfall chances over the next few days highlight the fact that more rain comes at night than during the day.

Rain chances during the days and nights ahead
Rain chances during the days and nights ahead

Severe weather threat

The Storm Prediction Center has much of Central Texas at a level 2 out of 5 severe weather risk late Monday into early Tuesday.

Monday’s severe risk: 2 out of 5 for Hill Country & Austin-metro counties

While the main concerns are for large hail and damaging winds Monday evening into Tuesday morning, there is also a low-end tornado threat.

Monday’s severe risks – primary concerns: large hail & damaging winds

A similar 2 out of 5 severe weather risk is in place for Tuesday into Wednesday morning for most of Central Texas, including the Austin metro area.

Severe risk Tuesday into early Wednesday
Severe risk Tuesday into early Wednesday

Flash flooding risk

Although Central Texas is dealing with worsening drought, too much rain too quickly can cause flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

The Weather Prediction Center has most of Central Texas at a level 2 out of 4 flash flooding risk from Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning.

Monday’s flash flood risk – 2 out of 4 for Hill Country & Austin-metro counties

The flash flood risk is lower Tuesday into early Wednesday morning for most of us (Level 1 out of 4), but some of our eastern counties are in a higher 2 out of 4 risk.

Tuesday flood risk – 1 out of 4 for most of Central Texas

Rainfall forecast

Central Texas needs rain. Even with the downpours that got many of us wet Saturday night, we’re still dealing with one of the driest Mays on record.

If we didn’t get any more rain the rest of the month this May would be among the driest on record.

Driest Mays in Austin
Driest Mays in Austin

Overall a widespread 1-4 inches of rain is expected Monday through Wednesday, but isolated 5-6 inch amounts are possible.

The Hill Country rainfall forecast amounts have dropped a little bit unfortunately with ROUND 1 bringing the most rain west of I-35 with ROUND 2 bringing the heaviest rain east of I-35.

Here’s the 7-day rainfall forecast from the National Weather Service.

7 Day Rainfall Forecast
7-day rainfall forecast

Should several storms “train” over the same areas again and again then localized higher amounts will be possible anywhere.

Stay with the First Warning Weather Team