AUSTIN (KXAN) — The First Warning Weather team is tracking some major changes to our weather pattern. After a fairly mild end to Spring and start to Meteorological Summer, (especially when compared to last year) odds are increasing that we will see our first triple-digit temperature of the season at some point next week.

2022 had the third-highest number of triple-digit days in a year with 68. 2011 had the most ever with 90! The average in a given year is 29.

Models are getting into better agreement that our pattern will change from wet and mild to hot and dry. The ‘National Blend of Models’ forecast data, which essentially takes into account various forecast models, is starting to compute our first triple-digit temperature of the season at some point next week. July 4th is when we typically on average see our first 100-degree day. So if we get our first next week that would place us a few weeks ahead of schedule.

A blend of forecasting models — Courtesy of WeatherBELL

Here is a look at the upper atmosphere on the GFS model for early next week. It shows a powerful, summer type of ridge (over 590+dm) developing over Mexico and pushing northward into the state. This ridge of high pressure will play a role in limiting our rain chances and provide us with sinking, compressing air that will likely heat up our temperatures well above average and provide us with our first 100-degree day of the season.

Upper-level pattern of the atmosphere

First Warning Weather triple digit forecast!

The First Warning Weather Team has compiled our predictions for triple-digit days in 2023:

  • Sean Kelly: 33
  • David Yeomans: 34
  • Rich Segal: 35
  • Nick Bannin: 37
  • Kristen Currie: 42
  • Jim Spencer: 44

*Winner of 2022’s prediction: Sean Kelly*