AUSTIN (KXAN) — With less than two weeks until meteorological fall is over, NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center updated their winter forecast.

Meteorological winter begins Dec. 1 and lasts through the end of February.

Previous outlooks, issued mid-October, pointed to reasonably good odds of a wetter-than-normal season ahead thanks to a strong El Niño.

This updated forecast continues to lean wetter than average, but not by as much.

Updated winter outlook

Almost all of Central Texas continues to be in the “wetter than normal” category for the winter precipitation forecast. Parts of the far western corner of our viewing area have dropped into the “equal chances” category with no clear signal on precipitation. Previous outlooks had us well within the “leaning wetter” category. See how things changed a bit lower in this blog.

Winter precipitation forecast (November update)
Winter precipitation forecast (November update)

No significant change in the temperature forecast. We continue to be in the “equal chances” category indicating no clear signal on temperatures for most of us, but areas northwest of Austin lean more toward that “near normal” category.

Winter temperature forecast (November release)
Winter temperature forecast (November release)

How the outlooks changed

Use the slider below to see how the winter forecast changed from mid-October (original release) to the mid-November update. Slide right to see the original and slide left to reveal the latest winter forecast updated in November.

Winter precipitation forecast (CPC)Winter forecast (November update)
Original winter forecast vs. November update shows lower chances of a wet winter

Of course, while we’re still leaning toward a wetter than normal winter, lower confidence in that happening is not good given the widespread drought we continue to deal with in Central Texas.

December forecast

NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) also sent out their December forecast. From a rain perspective, December appears near normal.

December precipitation forecast (CPC)
December precipitation forecast (CPC)

The temperature forecast also appears near normal with roughly equal chances of warm, cold or average.

December temperature forecast (CPC)
December temperature forecast (CPC)

What’s normal in December?

December is our second coldest month, on average, with only January being colder in a typical year. December averages 7.6 days with measurable precipitation of 0.01″ or more.

  • Average high: 63.9º
    • Dec. 1 average high: 67º
    • Dec. 31 average high: 62º
  • Average low: 43.4º
    • Dec. 1 average low: 46º
    • Dec. 31 average low: 42º
  • Average rain: 2.72″ (Fifth driest month)
  • Average snow: 0″

Stay with the First Warning Weather Team as we continue to track any adjustments to your winter outlook.