AUSTIN (KXAN) — The mid-April ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) forecast continues to paint a murky picture about when our current La Niña phase will come to an end.

The CPC/IRI official forecast gives odds of La Niña continuing through summer (June-August) at 59% with a 50-55% chance of it continuing through fall.

CPC/IRI ENSO forecast

Typically the La Niña phase of ENSO occurs every three to five years, but we had it for winter 2020-2021 with a repeat for winter 2021-2022 and it has continued into spring. succinctly describes El Niño and La Niña as the “warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical pacific.”


La Niña and severe weather in Central Texas

The phase of ENSO typically has greater impacts on the Northern Hemisphere during the winter, but in the spring we can see more tornadoes and large hail events in Central Texas in a La Niña phase.


La Niña and the Atlantic Hurricane Season

During the hurricane season, La Niña can also mean increased tropical activity in the Atlantic


La Niña means typically drier and warmer weather for us in the winter. We ended winter drier and that continued into spring bringing increasing drought to Central Texas.

Our wettest month of the year, on average, is May and we’ll get our first outlook at the May forecast from the Climate Prediction Center on Thursday, April 21.