AUSTIN (KXAN) — The mid-October ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) update from the Climate Prediction Center and the Columbia Climate School points toward an even higher probability of a third winter in a row of La Niña, increasing the odds over previous forecasts.
A month ago, the odds of La Niña continuing through winter (December-February) were at 65%, but the latest forecast odds have jumped to 75%.
What does a La Niña mean for Central Texas?
La Niña is a climate pattern resulting from cooler-than-normal temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that can have impacts across the globe.
As we’ve mentioned in the past, a winter La Niña typically brings a warmer-than-normal and drier-than-normal period for Central Texas.
When will La Nina end?
La Niña is favored to end during the February-April period, and an ENSO neutral pattern is still favored to take over, but the odds of La Niña continuing into at least a portion of the spring season have increased.
The CPC ENSO forecast is broken up into overlapping three-month periods:
- The odds of La Niña continuing into January-March are now up to ~58% (up from ~53% a month ago).
- The odds of a La Niña February-April are now up to around 44% (up from ~38% a month ago).
- The odds of a La Niña spring, March-May are now up to 26% (up from ~22% a month ago).
NOAA is expected to release its winter 2022-2023 outlook next week. We’ll bring you the expectations as soon as they are announced.