AUSTIN (KXAN) — The newest ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) forecast from the Climate Prediction Center now expects La Niña conditions to continue into the early spring.

The updated forecast calls for a 67% chance of La Niña continuing from March-May with more neutral pattern slightly favored (51% chance) to develop by the April-June period. Still, La Niña may linger with a 47% chance of continuing into April-June. Forecasts are broken up into overlapping three-month periods.

ENSO forecast. (Courtesy:

Beginning with the May-July period, a Neutral ENSO pattern becomes more clearly favored. ENSO is considered neutral when sea surface temperature anomalies in a specific area of the eastern Pacific Ocean range from + or – 0.5 degrees Celsius.

This is our second winter in a row with La Niña conditions in what’s referred to as a “double-dip La Niña.”

La Niña typically has the greatest impacts in the winter months with drier and warmer than normal weather being the dominating pattern in Central Texas.


But what will La Niña mean for early spring? The latest three-month outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center favor a continuation of warm and dry for Central Texas.

Temp forecast January-March. (Courtesy CPC)
Precip forecast January-March. (Courtesy CPC)

However, these three-month outlooks don’t reflect the increasing likelihood of La Niña into early spring and will be updated this Thursday, Jan. 20. We will bring you the February and three-month outlooks when they are released later this week.