How this year’s ACL forecast compares to years past

Weather Blog

This upcoming Friday could potentially be the hottest high temperature for ACL since 2006. The forecast high for Friday as of right now is 98 degrees. This temperature however would not come close to the hottest recorded ACL temperature of all time. That was 107 degrees set during the “Dust Bowl” of 2005.

This however will likely be the hottest ACL Fest to take place in the month of October. The previous high temperature was 95 degrees set back in 2015.

A lot of attendees choose to skip out on weekend 1 and head to weekend 2 to avoid the heat thinking that weekend 2 is historically a little cooler. Is this factual? Absolutely. But not by much. Since the festival moved to two weekends, the second weekend has been on average one degree cooler:

Ironically though, over the last four years, the second weekend has actually been one degree warmer:

Weekend 1 avg temp since 2015 – 87 degrees

Weekend 2 avg temp since 2015 — 88.1 degrees

An early preview of ACL weekend 2’s forecast

A very early look at the weather pattern for weekend 2 suggests that weekend 2 will more than likely be COOLER than weekend 1. It is still way too early to talk specifics, but model guidance continues to hint at a possible cold front around Oct. 7th/8th. A strong front could certainly at least keep temperatures down to more seasonable levels (mid 80s) by weekend 2.

Here is a look at the recorded high temperatures of all the past ACL’s since 2002:

2019
                Oct. 4 – Forecast of 98
                Oct. 5 – Forecast of 97
                Oct. 6 – Forecast of 97

2018
                Oct. 5 – 90
                Oct. 6 – 89
                Oct. 7 – 88
                Oct. 12 – 86
                Oct. 13 – 90
                Oct. 14 – 90

2017
                Oct. 6 – 87
                Oct. 7 – 88
                Oct. 8 – 91
                Oct. 13 – 90
                Oct. 14 – 90
                Oct. 15 – 79

2016
                Sept. 30 – 83
                Oct. 1 – 80
                Oct. 2 – 85
                Oct. 7 – 89
                Oct. 8 – 86
                Oct. 9 – 84

2015
                Oct. 2 – 89
                Oct. 3 – 87
                Oct. 4 – 87
                Oct. 9 – 88
                Oct. 10 – 90
                Oct. 11 – 95

2014
                Oct. 3 – 85
                Oct. 4 – 80
                Oct. 5 – 87
                Oct. 10 – 78
                Oct. 11 – 77
                Oct. 12 – 76

2013
                Oct. 4 – 92
                Oct. 5 – 90
                Oct. 6 – 82
                Oct. 11 – 88
                Oct. 12 – 92
                Oct. 13 – 76

2012
                Oct. 12 – 88
                Oct. 13 – 83
                Oct. 14 – 88

2011
                Sept. 16 – 91
                Sept. 17 – 93
                Sept. 18 – 95

2010
                Oct. 8 – 84
                Oct. 9 – 86
                Oct. 10 – 85

2009
                Oct. 2 – 81
                Oct. 3 – 71
                Oct. 4 – 84

2008
                Sept. 26 – 91
                Sept. 27 – 91
                Sept. 28 – 90

2007
                Sept. 14 – 94
                Sept. 15 – 92
                Sept. 16 – 90

2006
                Sept. 15 – 98
                Sept. 16 – 98
                Sept. 17 – 90

2005
                Sept. 23 – 98
                Sept. 24 – 99
                Sept. 25 – 107

2004
                Sept. 17 – 96
                Sept. 18 – 95
                Sept. 19 – 94

2003
                Sept. 19 – 83
                Sept. 20 – 80
                Sept. 21 – 74

2002
                Sept. 28 – 92
                Sept. 29 – 90

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