AUSTIN (KXAN) — Buckle up, Austin. We’re in for a long stretch of triple-digit heat.
As of June 6, each day on the First Warning Weather seven-day forecast is above 100°, and longer range models suggest the triple-digit heat could last well into June.
The 8-to-14-day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center puts Central Texas squarely in the region likely to see above-average temperatures from June 13 to June 19. Important caveat: average highs in Austin during that period range from 93.1° to 93.7°, so “above average” doesn’t necessarily mean 100°. But it’s not inconceivable to think we could end up with at least two weeks of 100° temperatures.
Our forecast of at least seven days of triple-digit temperatures is still a long way off from the record-setting heat waves that Austin has experienced over the years, for now.
Unsurprisingly, 2011 holds the record for most 100° days in a row: 27 in total, from July 17 to August 12. A total of 90 triple-digit days were recorded that year, between May 25 and Sept. 29.
The summers of 2001 and 2020 also saw 20-day stretches of temperatures at or above 100°.
Austin typically doesn’t hit 100° for the first time until July 4, so we’re already well ahead of schedule. But does an early start mean the rest of the summer will be just as hot? Let’s look at the data.
There have been six times in Austin history when more than 10 triple-digit days were recorded in the month of June. A record of 20 was reported in June 2008. That year went on to have 50 days at or above 100°. That’s actually the lowest when looking the other five months that fit the description of 10 triple-digit days in June.
In 2011, which saw a record 90 100° days, Austin hit the century mark 15 times in June.
It’s possible this year could buck the trend. The Atlantic Hurricane Season just kicked off, and the chance of Texas being hit by a hurricane is increasing, according to forecasts. Colorado State University now gives Texas a 59% chance of a hurricane coming very close or making landfall this year.
If that were to pan out, it’s possible Central Texas could benefit from cooler temperatures and much-needed rain.
For the time being though, the forecast remains consistent: hot and dry.