AUSTIN (KXAN) — A disturbance in the northern Gulf of Mexico still lurks off the coast of Louisiana Tuesday, with eyes set on Texas impacts Thursday and Friday.

There still remains uncertainty as to where this tropical low will come ashore, but there is increasing confidence that this disturbance will stay sub-tropical storm strength as it runs out of ocean real estate before getting pushed over land. The National Hurricane Center has a 30% probability of further organization within two days.

Tropical satellite & NHC outlook as of 5AM Tuesday

ANALYSIS: What are the models saying?

Two of the various models we use to evaluate possible impacts show two different outcomes.

The European (ECMWF) model shows a more easterly track with the heaviest rain favoring east Texas, leaving Central Texas with minimal rainfall accumulation.

European model – forecast rainfall accumulation by Saturday evening

The American (GFS) model shows a more southerly, disorganized track that would leave our southern counties favored for ~1″ of rain, and lesser amount elsewhere.

American model – forecast rainfall accumulation as of Sunday morning

First Warning Forecast

As of Tuesday morning, the First Warning Weather forecast has held rainfall chances around 20-30% Thursday and Friday. We’ll keep rainfall projections generic (0.25″-1″) – be sure to stay with the KXAN Weather team as we sort through the newest data.

Rainfall chances this week
Weekly rain chances