As we turn the calendar to April, we are tracking the potential of our first 90°+ temperatures on the horizon late next week.
While extended forecasts can be hard to pin down, the Climate Prediction Center is calling for a high likelihood of hotter than normal weather between April 6-10 due to a mid- and upper-level ridge we expect to build in the atmosphere over Texas. Average highs that time of year are in the upper 70s.
We are seeing consistent signals in our computer models as well that a significant warming trend takes hold late next week.
Shown above is the average of many different computer model runs by one of our best long-range models, the European (ECMWF). Taking the average of all of the computer’s different runs can be a good forecasting method.
Other computer model “ensemble means” still suggest 80s next week instead of 90s, like the Canadian (GEM) model shown below.
What is most important here is all models are trending hotter as new information comes in and next week draws nearer. This is an important signal that high temperatures in the 90s may indeed materialize.
Although a high in the 90s this early in the year may seem unusual, it’s not far from the norm. According to the long-term average, Camp Mabry’s first 90° day of the year typically comes April 14. But as the climate warms, hotter temperatures are coming earlier. The average first 90° day from 1981-2010 comes April 8, and between 1990-2020 it comes April 3.
And lastly, for a bit of eye candy which will not likely happen, the European model’s “deterministic” run is forecasting a high of 100° in Austin next Friday. This is not currently in our forecast.
Stay with the KXAN First Warning Weather team as temperatures heat up this April.