First Warning: Severe storm risk next weekend

Weather Blog
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AUSTIN (KXAN) — While much can change when forecasting six days into the future, we may be facing the most significant severe weather threat of the spring thus far on Saturday.

  • We are making this post now not to attract clicks, but because our three long-range computer models agree remarkably well on the weather setup next weekend, and have consistently agreed for several model runs. This means our confidence in potential storms is higher than usual, even this far in the future.

A southerly flow late this week will prime the atmosphere with heat and humidity as high temperatures rise into the 80s on Thursday and Friday.

A compact, energetic storm system is forecast to dive farther south than recent storms, potentially moving directly over central Texas on Saturday.

When the center of a low pressure system moves directly overhead as opposed to hundreds of miles away, there is both more lift and more rotation in the atmosphere — ingredients that can produce severe thunderstorms.

Here is a first look at how this may play out next weekend. Hour-by-hour details and exact impacts will need to be fine-tuned as the event approaches. Stay with the First Warning Weather team for daily updates.

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