First Warning: Heavy rain possible January 1st, 2nd

Weather Blog

After a very dry second half of 2019, it appears that 2020 may start on a wet note in Central Texas.

While it was a wet start to the year, an analysis of rainfall over the last six months at Camp Mabry shows that we have only received 50% of normal rain since July 1.

Rain in AustinObserved (2019)Average
July0.39″1.88″
August1.51″2.35″
September0.64″2.99″
October4.19″3.88″
November0.66″2.96″
December0.76″2.01″
TOTAL8.15″16.07″

A very hot late summer and early fall, plus unseasonably dry weather, have led to widespread soil drought conditions returning.

U.S. Drought Monitor, updated 12/26/19

While forecasting exact rain totals 5-7 days in the future is difficult, our best long-range computer models agree that a strong western storm system will take a more southern track than the most recent storms to affect our area, drawing in plentiful moisture and setting the stage for heavier, more widespread rain than we have seen in some time.

If either of the long-range computer models (below) verify, we may see a more significant rain event than we have seen since October, when several inches of rain fell in parts of Austin.

It should be noted that although rain is forecast on New Year’s Day and Jan. 2, New Year’s Eve plans do look dry as of now.

ECMWF model forecast rain totals through next Thursday evening, Jan. 2
GFS model forecast rain totals through next Thursday evening, Jan. 2

Stay with the First Warning Weather team as we receive new information over the coming days and adjust our long-range forecast accordingly.

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