NOTE: This article was originally published on Thursday September 28, but has since been updated to reflect the latest forecast data which continues to trend wetter!
AUSTIN (KXAN) — Since the beginning of June we’ve only had highs in the 80s six times and never for a full week. Mostly it’s been triple digits or 90s and well above normal.
Our luck may change soon as increasing signs of a cooler and wetter trend look set to kick in by the time we begin the second week of October.
As a trough of low pressure tracks from the western states eastward and our current high pressure retreats, we may get our strongest cold front in a while to bring longer-lasting temperature relief.
The European Ensemble temperature forecast for Austin continues to take highs out of the 90s beginning next Thursday, Oct. 5, and keeps them there through at least mid-October.
The GFS (American) computer model has the same date (Oct. 5) for the beginning of 80s but isn’t quite as cool as the EURO for the week that follows.
Both models suggest at least a week of below 90º. The last time we had seven straight days with highs below 90 degrees was May 24-30.
It won’t just be cooler, but confidence is growing that we’ll be wetter starting late next week and into the middle of October.
The European model points to a wet period beginning around Thursday, Oct. 5, and continuing through the middle of the month. Mean rainfall totals for Austin exceed two inches for this roughly eight-day period ending on Oct.13!
The American model begins our wet period around the same time and has been trending wetter than previous model runs. Mean rainfall estimates now exceed 2 inches by the middle of October.
First Warning Forecast
Now that our 7-Day forecast extends into next Thursday we are indeed forecasting temperatures to drop out of the 90s with at least 60% rain chances Wednesday and Thursday.
The NWS 7-Day rainfall forecast points to 1.0″-2.5″ of rain, most of which comes Wednesday and Thursday of next week.
Meteorologist Nick Bannin will keep updating this article if the date of the first 80s moves around a little bit. Keep checking back through the weekend for updates!