(Updated Friday with new forecast information)
AUSTIN (KXAN) — Following a minor brush with wintry weather earlier this week, we may have a similar setup next week. This small potential is not expected to have any impact on roadways or travel.
To form wintry precipitation (sleet, snow, freezing rain), you need three ingredients locally:
- Strong cold front at ground level
- Upper-level storm system
- Sufficient moisture
Our two best long-range computer models agree that we will have a strong cold front on Monday night next week, but they are now trending drier with the precipitation that may follow. This is because the atmospheric disturbance appears weaker, and moisture content appears more lacking.
Oftentimes, strong cold fronts leave our atmospheric column too dry to support any precipitation, so it may be cold enough for snow or sleet, but instead nothing falls from the sky at all.
See the latest computer model forecasts (below), with the European computer model now trending drier to match the GFS computer’s solution. Accordingly, we have lowered precipitation chances in our forecast next week.
Stay with the First Warning Weather team through the weekend as we gather new information, as this forecast may still need to be modified.