September has been a record-setting hot month. In fact, it is currently the hottest September on record with 19 triple digit days so far this month.
This heat has a lot of people in central Texas pleading for some cooler weather and asking us if there is any relief in sight.
On average we typically see our first cold front around Sept 20th/21st and from there on our temperatures quickly drop by roughly 0.3 degrees per day. Considering we are approaching the start of October with no major relief from the heat, we are LONG overdue for some cooler weather.
As of the last few days, it looks like we finally have the potential for some cooler weather in our future. For the first time this season, forecasting models are hinting at the POSSIBILITY of our first cold front of the season arriving around October 4th. This timing would line up perfectly for weekend one of Austin City Limits Music Festival.
This is a LONG 9 days away, and models are notoriously inaccurate this far in advance. It’s important to remember that models are forecasting tools and not promises. Both forecast models (GFS-American & EURO-European) do agree that a cold front could arrive by early October. They are also becoming a little more in agreement with the arrival time of the front which does increase our confidence a bit:
However, the models continue to disagree on the intensity of the front. With the GFS being stronger/colder and the EURO weaker/warmer.
The key take away is that model guidance may be on to something but you should not get too caught up in the timing and strength of the front as it is still too far out to EXPECT A GUARANTEE that the front will even push this far south. With that said, this is the best chance we have seen so far and the longer the models continue to agree on this outcome we will continue to grow more optimistic. In the meantime, stay cool!