EYES ON THE TROPICS: September is most active month for hurricane development

Weather Blog

(KXAN) — September is considered the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. It’s when waves of thunderstorms coming off Africa are more frequent than during months prior.

Sea surface temperatures are at their warmest as they’ve been baking in the hot summer sun.

Adding to this, atmospheric conditions tend to favor less wind shear. Development closer to home is also more favorable. Below shows the average tracks tropical cyclones tend to take during the month of September. You can see the Gulf of Mexico is in the “Most Likely” area.

With that being said, something we need to not be concerned about just yet, but certainly need to watch in the days ahead, is an area being closely monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) out in the Caribbean Sea. The NHC is giving this cluster of thunderstorms a low, 30% of development — for now.

Here is what the NHC had to say:

“An area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized shower activity over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some slow development of this system remains possible over the next couple of days if it remains over open water while moving west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph near the coast of Central America. Thereafter, the system will have another opportunity for gradual development in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula later this week into the weekend.”

What do some of the latest models show for this potential system?

Not much.

Many of our best models show a low TRYING to develop in the western gulf around September 10 but can’t really get its act together. So again, something to just watch, but not worry about.

Check in with us each day for updates as we are now in the midst of hurricane season.

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