AUSTIN (KXAN) — Meteorological winter begins Dec. 1 for the Northern Hemisphere and we’re getting a look at how the first third of winter might begin for Central Texas.

As discussed a lot over the past month, La Niña will likely play a big role in the overall weather pattern this winter.

Over the past week, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society announced that La Niña conditions had strengthened, further reinforcing the expectation that our winter will be warmer and drier as a whole. But how will winter begin?

December forecast

On Thursday, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Climate Prediction Center released their updated December forecast. In line with the overall winter forecast, December appears likely to be drier and warmer than normal for Central Texas.

December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook

What’s normal for December in Austin?

  • Average High: 63.9
    • Dec. 1 Average High: 67
    • Dec. 31 Average High: 62
  • Average Low: 43.4
    • Dec. 1 Average Low: 46
    • Dec. 31 Average Low: 42
  • Average Rain: 2.72″ (Fifth driest month)
  • Average Snow: 0″

How long will La Niña continue?

That update from IRI suggested a 90% probability that La Niña continues through winter and a 50% probability that La Niña continues into spring 2022.