Autumn finally arrives on Monday

Weather Blog

Forecast highs Monday (GFS model)

A ridge of high pressure responsible for record heat today from Austin to Atlanta is blocking a cold front we are tracking in the panhandle from making it any farther south.

Cold front stalled in north Texas Thursday morning.

While the front pictured above is not expected to make it through our area, a second cold front in the Pacific northwest today is expected to bring typical fall temperatures early next week at last as the blocking ridge of high pressure breaks down.

As usual, our best long-range computer models disagree on the precise strength of the front, but whichever forecast solution verifies, temperatures will be much more comfortable than in recent weeks.

The GFS model (below) is currently our most trusted outcome for this front, pointing to a dry frontal passage early Monday morning, then mild afternoon temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s.

Forecast highs Monday (GFS model)
Forecast lows Tuesday (GFS model)

Our other long-range computer model is suggesting cooler temperatures from day to night early next week. While we are not convinced high temperatures Monday will be as cool as shown, low temperatures in the 50s outside of Austin on Tuesday are certainly possible.

Forecast highs Monday (ECMWF model)
Forecast lows Tuesday (ECMWF model)

Stay with the KXAN First Warning Weather team through this record-hot weekend while we monitor the progress and strength of this welcome autumn cold front.

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