AUSTIN (KXAN) — The threat of damaging severe storms is lower overnight as the best storm ingredients remain in North Texas.

It is important to note that this will not be a repeat of the Mar. 21 tornado outbreak, as storms will overall remain much weaker and more isolated locally.

Timing

Overnight: The tail-end of a complex of thunderstorms producing Tornado Warnings in North Texas is trying to back-build into our northern counties, but the best storm ingredients remain to our north with a storm-killing “cap” in the atmosphere locally. This is partially a byproduct of having clouds in place all day Monday which kept surface temperatures cooler, and less energy in the atmosphere.

We will watch the line of storms try to progress eastward and build into Milam County during the overnight hours, although it will be a close call as to whether or not they will be able to do so.

Forecast clouds and radar at 11:30 p.m. Monday
Forecast clouds and radar at 3:30 a.m. Tuesday

Scattered lighter rain will remain possible until as late as 6 a.m. Tuesday in our eastern counties.

Severe weather threat

The risk of severe weather has been dropping in your latest forecast. A “cap” or lid on our atmosphere locally due to cloudy skies all day should limit how many storms develop, especially from Austin southward.

Most of Central Texas (including Austin) is at a “marginal risk” of severe weather (level 1 out of 5 risk). Areas north of Austin are in a “slight risk” (2 out of 5).

The highest severe risk late Monday evening through Tuesday morning is northeast of Waco through Dallas and east into Louisiana where an “enhanced risk” (level 3 out of 5 risk) is in place from the Storm Prediction Center for Monday into early Tuesday.

Severe risk Monday into Tuesday morning

Impacts

Overall impacts are expected to be limited and those of us wanting more rainfall will likely be left wanting. The highest threat of damaging storms will be in our northern tier of counties through 1 a.m. Damaging winds are the main concern, and some hail is possible as well.

Rainfall

Any storms that do develop will have the potential to drop anywhere from a quarter inch to one inch of rainfall in a short time, but areas that see rainfall that heavy will be very localized and mainly north of Austin. Many parts of Austin and communities southward may not see any measurable rain at all.

Forecast rain totals

Stay with the First Warning Weather Team as we track the storms overnight.