AUSTIN (KXAN) — New projections from the Lower Colorado River Authority show that if drier-than-normal weather continues, the combined water storage in lakes Travis and Buchanan may drop below a threshold that would trigger additional water restrictions in Austin this summer.

Even with periodic rain events, much of Central Texas, including the Austin area, has stacked up a 16-20″ rainfall deficit in the last year — rainfall we should have received but haven’t. This has led to low lake levels and severe drought conditions.

12-month rain deficit nears 20 inches in much of the area
12-month rainfall deficit (Southern Regional Climate Center)

The dry, warm weather pattern led to record-low water inflows into the Highland Lakes in 2022. Even less water flowed into lakes Travis and Buchanan last year than it did during the record-hot 2011. And things have not improved. Water inflows so far this year have been even lower than the first few months of 2022.

New projections from the Lower Colorado River Authority show that under continued dry or extremely dry conditions, Lake Travis may drop another 10 feet by the end of summer. The combined water storage in lakes Travis and Buchanan may dip below 900,000 acre feet as early as June or July — a level that would move Austin Water from stage one to stage two restrictions.

  • Current stage 1 water restrictions: 1x/week watering for automatic sprinklers during specified hours, 2x/week watering for hose-end sprinklers during specified hours
  • Stage 2 water restrictions: 1x/week watering for all residential customers during limited hours
LCRA lake level projections show a continued drop this summer if dry weather continues
LCRA lake level projections show a continued drop this summer if dry weather continues

A saving grace could be the long-awaited transition from La Niña to a wetter, cooler El Niño pattern. On Thursday, the Climate Prediction Center declared that our triple-dip La Niña pattern that has had a large hand in our multi-year drought is over, and a wetter El Niño pattern is expected to return later this year.