AUSTIN (KXAN) — Camp Mabry has officially broken its 51-day dry streak — the 8th-longest in recorded history — with beneficial rain and thunderstorms on Thursday evening. Storms wind down overnight, but a stationary front still in the area on Friday will mean another round of scattered rain and thunderstorms developing in the heat of the day.

Temperatures hit 100 degrees today in Austin for the 67th time this year, the 4th-highest 100-degree day count on record. But there may not be many 100-degree days left this summer as an unsettled weather pattern returns for the next week or more, increasing soil moisture content dramatically.

Next Rain-Making Storm

We are monitoring a tropical disturbance with a 40% chance of developing into a Tropical Depression in the western Gulf over the next several days.

While we currently expect a mainly dry, warmer weekend, that tropical system may funnel moisture into a trough of low pressure forecast to stall over the state Monday through Thursday next week. If these ingredients come together as they may, heavy rain may be sufficient to lead to flooding concerns next week — a dramatic turnaround during this severe drought.

Rainfall forecast map
Forecast rain totals next 7 days (Natl. Weather Service)

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Summer heat

Following Austin’s first official day of triple-digit heat, back on May 21, the First Warning Weather team each came up with their own predictions for how many 100° days we’ll see this year. Follow along through the summer with the chart below. Camp Mabry is in the midst of its hottest summer on record.

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