AUSTIN (KXAN) — Austin tallied its 65th 100° of the year on Tuesday — our fifth-highest 100° day count on record. But instead of the broken record of hot, dry weather continuing in your 7-day forecast, the First Warning Weather team is actually tracking a welcome large-scale weather pattern change that could lead to several rounds of rain.

We are tracking a cool front sinking southward from Oklahoma, forecast to arrive in our area and stall out on Thursday. The front interacting with daytime heating should produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms both Thursday and Friday, with rain chances now as high as 50-60%. While some will miss out, many should enjoy 0.5″-1″ of rainfall with locally heavier totals of 1″-3″ possible.

Clouds/radar forecast on Thursday
Clouds/radar forecast on Thursday afternoon showing scattered to numerous thunderstorms

With this front, Austin will likely end its dry streak, currently at 50 consecutive days without measurable rainfall. This is Camp Mabry’s 10th-longest dry spell on record.

A second round of rainfall may come next week as the ridge of high pressure we have seen so often this summer is replaced by a trough of low pressure, leading to more scattered heavy downpours beginning Monday or Tuesday.

7-day rainfall forecasts
7-day rain total forecast (Natl. Weather Service)

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical disturbance moving toward the Gulf of Mexico later this week with a 20% chance of developing into a Tropical Depression. There is much uncertainty in what, if any, impact Texas sees from this. Stay tuned as we monitor its progression.

Tropical update

Farmers’ Almanac releases Texas winter forecast — Here’s why it’s probably wrong

Summer heat

Following Austin’s first official day of triple-digit heat, back on May 21, the First Warning Weather team each came up with their own predictions for how many 100° days we’ll see this year. Follow along through the summer with the chart below. Camp Mabry is in the midst of its hottest summer on record.

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