AUSTIN (KXAN) — So far, our coldest temperatures of the season in the Austin area hit back on October 18 when Camp Mabry fell down to 49 degrees while Austin Bergstrom airport reached 44 degrees.
But after Wednesday’s cold front, we’ll likely see even colder temperatures on Friday morning, marking the coldest morning of the season so far. As of right now, the First Warning Weather team is forecasting a low at Camp Mabry near 45 for the morning of Nov. 5. Some models are showing even colder temperatures than this, with the GRAF model depicting some rural areas falling down into the 30s.
What’s causing this big change in the weather?
A cold front that pushed through the area early Wednesday morning continues to bring cold air from the north behind it. And if optimal radiational cooling happens Friday morning, we could very well see some of the colder models such as the GRAF verify.
What is radiational cooling?
Radiational cooling takes place at night when infrared radiation, or heat, leaves the Earth’s surface and escapes back to space. This is most efficient after a cold front when we have drier conditions, clear skies and calm winds.
Calm winds prevent mixing of the air. Mixing air moves air, causing it to be slightly warmer. Clouds act as a blanket stopping that warm air from leaving the Earth surface and therefore keeps the low temperatures warmer than a night with clear skies. Some models, such as the GRAF, are picking up on the potential for clearing skies Friday morning and therefore significantly cooler temperatures. This is a possibility and will continue to keep you updated as we narrow down our forecast.
Before we get to our coolest temperatures of the season on Friday though, Thursday afternoon we will experience the coldest afternoon HIGH temps so far this season with a Forecast high near 57. Crushing our current standing coolest high temp of 75. This was back on Oct. 17.
The last time we saw high temperatures in the 50s was back on March 1 when Camp Mabry reached 58 degrees.