First cold front of the season likely to be on time — early or later than normal?

Weather

There is a clear common time frame for our first front, which has arrived during the third week of September eight times over the past 31 years (KXAN)

AUSTIN (KXAN) — As summer 2021 comes to an end, we have a very timely cold front looking to sweep through just in time for the first day of fall on Tuesday.

Taking a look back since 1990, we’ve had our fair spread of first arrivals of cold fronts across Central Texas.

There is a clear common time frame for our first front, which has arrived during the third week of September eight times over the past 31 years.

The other most common time is the first week of September, which has happened six times.

Since 1990, there has not been one particular day that has seen the most frontal passages. Although, over the past 31 years, several dates throughout the month happen to have two fronts pass through.

Interestingly, there was a warmer than average stretch of temperatures where anything from records being broken, to a stretch of 100 degree days, occurring eight times prior to our first cool down. A lot like what we’ve seen this week with a record high broken on Friday of 99 degrees, and then our two consecutive triple digit days on Sunday and Monday.

As this year’s cold front arrives later Tuesday afternoon, as it’s currently forecast to, it will add an additional tally to the third week group, which is the mode (most frequently occurring) of this dataset.

Copyright 2021 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Austin-Travis County

Check out the latest Emmy Award-winning weather lesson

More First Warning Weather University

Tracking the Coronavirus

Coronavirus Cases Tracker

Latest Central Texas COVID-19 Cases

Trending Stories

Don't Miss