AUSTIN (KXAN) - Since Oct. 1, Camp Mabry has only picked up 1.5 inches of official rainfall. By the time Thursday morning rolls around, this area will likely double -- and maybe even quadruple -- that number.
A large upper-level low is churning over the Pacific Southwest, and has plans toward Central Texas. When it arrives, it will interact with abundant moisture coming out of the Gulf of Mexico, and in turn, will generate the most significant rain event we have seen since summer.
Light rain began early Tuesday morning. The showers are expected to pick up in intensity and coverage Tuesday afternoon, with the heaviest of the rain continuing through Wednesday evening.
By early Thursday morning, the last of the leftover showers will make their exit from the KXAN viewing area. However, that 48-hour time period will turn very messy.
From Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon, the storm will be at its strongest. During that period we will experience multiple heavy downpours, frequent thunderstorms, and even the possibility of severe weather.
If any severe storms do develop, they will likely include damaging winds, frequent cloud to ground lightning, large hail, and there may even be a small chance for an isolated tornado.
With 2- to 3 inches of rain expected in most spots, and some isolated areas receiving as much as 4- to 5 inches, flash flooding could also become a concern. The extremely dry soil will have a tough time absorbing all of the rainfall, therefore creeks, streams, and low water crossings will have to be monitored very closely.
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