Winter outlook includes more rain

AUSTIN (KXAN) - Central Texas has been lucky lately.

Storm systems brought drought relief in the area, downgrading the drought status from the exceptional category to moderate. The drought could lessen even more this winter because of El Nino.

"We're already seeing the impacts of El Nino," said First Warning Weather's Jim Spencer. "In fact several of these rain events have been directly El Nino related, because an unusually strong Pacific flow has been enhancing the rainfall that we've seen."

El Nino is a warming of Pacific Ocean. This El Nino in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is forecasted to persist or intensify this winter.

“Warmer ocean water in the equatorial Pacific shifts the patterns of tropical rainfall that in turn change the strength and position of the jetstream and storms over the Pacific Ocean,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center.

In Central Texas, there is a 40 percent chance of seeing above-normal rainfall. That chance increases to 50 percent over South Texas. Winter temperatures are forecast to be below normal mainly due to more cloud cover and precipitation.

El Nino does not mean we will necessarily see more ice or snow this winter. Smaller scale winter storms drive ice and snow possibilities. El Nino is a climate factor on a much larger scale.

"It will enhance the amount of moisture and rainfall and precipitation through the winter season," said Spencer. "So, all it takes is a cold front that drops us to 32 degrees or below for us to get a little ice or a little snow."

El Nino shifts the jet stream so more storm systems travel over Texas. More storm systems can mean more possibilities for severe weather including an increase in tornado activity along the Gulf Coast according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).