Voter turnout lower when no competition

AUSTIN (KXAN) - A big shakeup happened in Texas politics this week as the GOP presidential frontrunner in the state dropped out of the race.

"While this presidential race for us is over for me, we will suspend our campaign effective today,” Santorum said Tuesday.

Before he suspended his campaign, Santorum was leading Texas by three points, according to the latest Real Clear Politics poll average on March 13.

• Rick Santorum 32.5 percent
• Mitt Romney 29.5 percent
• Newt Gingrich 19.5 percent
• Ron Paul 8.5 percent

Santorum's departure gives Romney a better chance of winning the Lone Star State, but Sherri Greenberg with the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas said that win might not come with a great voter turnout.

"I think people may stay home,” Greenberg said. “They may say, whether we like it or not, and some will and some won't -- Mitt Romney is going to be the candidate in the general election."

In years with big races and clear competitive choices, Texas voters typically turn out in greater numbers, according to figures from the Texas secretary of state.

2010 GOP Gubernatorial Primary
1.5 million voters – 11.4 percent turnout

• Rick Perry
• Kay Bailey Hutchison
• Debra Medina

2008 GOP Presidential Primary
1.3 million voters – 10.7 percent turnout

• John McCain
• Mike Huckabee
• Ron Paul

But if you take out any real competition, those numbers fall.

2002 Gubernatorial Primary
656,000 voters – 5.2 percent turnout

• Rick Perry

2004 Presidential Primary
688,000 voters – 5.6 percent turnout

• George W. Bush

2002 Gubernatorial Primary
622,000 voters – 5.1 percent turnout

• Rick Perry

To make matters worse, switching the state's primary from March to May this year has further thrown things up in the air.

In addition, some analysts have said candidates with strong grassroots support might fare better when fewer people cast ballots. In the U.S. Senate race, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst currently has a clear lead, but Santorum's decision to leave the campaign trail might have a positive ripple effect for Dewhurst's main primary opponent – Ted Cruz. His passionate voting base might press forward in the primary, when other voters bypass the ballot box.

"You have to look at certainly who's generating excitement, who can get out the voters and it's wide open when you have an open seat like that,” said Greenberg.