Take early polls with a grain of salt

AUSTIN (KXAN) - As this week’s Gallup poll pits President Barack Obama and Gov. Rick Perry against each other in the fight for the White House, the general election match-up is neck-and-neck at 47 percent each.

But polls this early in the process are not always the best indicator of the eventual outcome – especially with a popular late-comer like Perry.

Check out Gallup’s presidential polling past, where the winner was not always the clear frontrunner:

• In August 1995, Kansas Sen. Bob Dole was slightly ahead of President Bill Clinton, 48-46. On Election Day 1996, Clinton beat Dole by 8 points.
• In August 1979, incumbent President Jimmy Carter was tied with former California Gov. Ronald Reagan each with 45 percent. Reagan later defeated Carter by 10 points.

On the other hand, primary election polls can be even more uncertain, unless several of those polls start to align. So far, five surveys since Perry announced have shown him in the lead, even over one-time front-runner Mitt Romney.

Gallup , Rasmussen Reports , Public Policy Polling and two from YouGov average Perry at 26 percent compared to Romney’s 16 percent. One month ago before his announcement, Perry had 14 percent and Romney led with 21.

At this point in the GOP process for the nomination in the 2008 presidential race, Rudy Giuliani had about 29% of the Republican vote, where Gallup’s poll now shows Perry. Of course, Giuliani’s campaign gave way to Arizona Sen. John McCain’s, reminding us anything can happen in the months to come for Perry, too.

Perry must make a strong showing at the three Republican debates next month to keep his spot on top. On Thursday, Perry said he will participate in the CNN/Tampa Tea Party Express Debate on Sept. 12 at the Florida State Fairgrounds.

"The Tea Party plays an important role in advancing principles of fiscal responsibility and conservative governance across our nation through its efforts to recruit and elect leaders that will fight to instill these values in the halls of government at all levels throughout our nation," said Perry. "I look forward to the opportunity this debate presents to discuss my record of conservative leadership and to share my vision with the great people of this country about how we will get America working again."

Working to grab the Tea Party vote, Perry is among a handful of very conservative GOP candidates in the field, which could give Romney some moderate leeway.