Austin's economic forecast

AUSTIN (KXAN) - Wednesday afternoon an expert in the financial markets gave his predictions at Austin's Four Seasons on the short-term economic forecast for the Austin-Round Rock metro area.

Dr. Ray Perryman, the president and CEO of the Perryman Group out of Waco, said the area's economy will get worse over the next few months, but it will improve thoughout the next four years. Perryman said by 2013, he expects to see improvements in employment, retail sales and the housing market.

Perryman was in Austin for the 25th consecutive year to share his thoughts with business and community leaders. Predictions from experts like Dr. Perryman can lead more businesses to want to open up shop or decide to wait until the economic times get better.

"Austin has done a very good job of keeping up its personality, and the personality is going to be very important to Austin's economic growth and potential," said Perryman.

Perryman said the housing market will get even worse over the next few months, but it will turn around. Housing permits are expected to increase 5.81 percent from 14,451 last year to 19,163 in 2013. The Austin area's population is expected to climb 3.35 percent from 1.64 million in 2008 to 1.94 million in four years. Perryman also said the best way to attract people is to expand the high-tech and medical industries in the area.

"The Austin area has been one of the highest-performing areas in the state," said Perryman. "The key to Austin's growth is to be in the forefront of the rapidly growing industries."

Late last year, the Austin-Round Rock area was named the fourth area in the country for great salary growth. The PayScale Web site reported the salaries in this area grew by 7.7 percent in the last year on average.

According to figures provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Austin Chamber of Commerce, a net of 6,200 jobs were added to the area payroll in 2008, and despite the record number of foreclosures across the country, the Austin area has fared very well according to those who track the market. Even financial experts said the $9 billion shortfall in the state budget is not so bad when you look at the bigger picture.

"We're in such a better state than most states that I think the average citizen should rejoice that the legislature last session were as frugal as they were," said Talmadge Heflin, with the Center for Fiscal Policy.

Another economic forecast to hit Austin is scheduled for Thursday at the Austin Convention Center. The Angelou Economics 2009-2010 economic forecast is the largest business event in Austin, with an average attendance of 1,000 people. The presentation in 2009 should include informantion and predictions on job growth, population, retail sales, taxes, entrepreneurship, venture capital, technology growth, emerging technologies and an overhead with predictions on the real estate markets. In 2008, Austin was named the tenth-fastest growing workplace in the nation.